The Ripple Effects of the Syrian Conflict in the Mashreq Region
New World Bank report calls for a renewed commitment to reforms for prosperity across the Mashreq region
WASHINGTON, June 18, 2020— A decade of conflict in Syria led to region-wide economic and social fallout across Iraq, Jordan, and Lebanon, adding urgency to the call for a region-wide response strategy, according to a new World Bank Report. The ripple effects of the Syrian conflict include increased poverty rates, higher debt burdens, deteriorating labor markets, especially for youth and women, and more restricted access to public services such as health care and electricity.
The Fallout of the War: The Regional Consequences of the Conflict in Syria estimates that the conflict in Syria has been solely responsible for annual reductions in economic growth of 1.2 percentage points (pp) in Iraq, 1.6 pp in Jordan, and 1.7 pp in Lebanon in the last decade. The conflict also drove up poverty rates by 6.0 pp in Iraq, 3.9 pp in Jordan, and 7.1 pp in Lebanon, while simultaneously precipitating the largest refugee crisis since World War II. At the peak, refugees exceeded a quarter of the local populations in Jordan, Lebanon, and the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, the highest refugee concentration in the world.
The fallout of the conflict was transmitted through multiple channels. With decreasing transit trade through Syria and stalling service exports like tourism, the marginal effect of the trade shock on GDP reached –3.1 pp in Jordan and –2.9 pp in Lebanon. In comparison, the demographic shock (refugee arrivals) boosted GDP by 0.9 pp in both countries by increasing aggregate demand and labor supply. However, these GDP effects are only a relatively small share of the overall impact.
Despite governments’ best efforts and support from the international community and humanitarian organizations, conditions on the ground remain difficult in the Mashreq. With weak social safety nets, Iraqi, Jordanian, and Lebanese citizens are largely unprotected against economic shocks. Host communities and refugees alike suffer from inadequate services, often leading to short-term alternatives like diesel generators and water transported by truck, which can be both unhealthy and up to three times costlier than grid options. Refugee children receive 5.4 fewer years of education than their host country peers in Lebanon, and 3.7 fewer years in Jordan, which is largely driven by low enrollment in secondary and tertiary levels. According to the report’s estimates, the human capital gain from closing these gaps could add to GDP growth by 1.1 % in Lebanon and 0.4% in Jordan.